I found some interesting information, I don't like predictions very much because they are often mistaken, but taken for what they are, it is an interesting piece of information to have.

Let me start with a brief introduction first.

Most of what I have read for the 2009 San Diego Real Estate Market is not very promising. The forecast is not a sunny one.

2008 was the year that sub prime borrowers and speculators got hurt by the real estate crisis, and San Diego had many of both. Inundating the market with Bank Owned Properties which in turn made the prices fall...continuously. Many experts are predicting that 2009 will be the year that the rest of the population joins the sub prime borrowers and the investors in their sorrows.

Up until now the hardest hit areas had been on the lower end markets that had been plagued with sub prime borrowers.

On Dec 23 Credit Suisse stated that 8 million homes will go into foreclosure from now until 2012. According to Buisnessweek this represents 16% of all US households with a mortgage. One of the major concerns now is that job losses due to the critical economic situation will force previously untouched communities and wealthier communities to start feeling the effects. Making matters a little more complicated, are the Option Arm and Alt-A loan resets that are coming in 2009 which will create a whole new wave of foreclosures coming into the market. All this at a time when according to Housing predictor marks the fourth year for California , where more people are moving out of the State than into it.


WORST MARKETS 2009
2009 Forecast
1. Detroit, MI − 24.3%
2. Riverside, CA − 23.9%
3. Stockton, CA − 23.8%
4. Los Angeles, CA − 21.7%
5. Miami , FL − 21.4%
6. Anaheim, CA − 21.1%
7. Las Vegas , NV− 19.8%
8. Fresno, CA − 19.7%
9. Phoenix, AZ − 19.6%
10. San Diego, CA − 19.5%


BEST MARKETS
2009 Forecast
1. Bloomington, IL 3.6%
2. Grand Junction, CO 3.1%
3.Billings, MT 3.1%
4.Fargo, ND 2.9%
5.Lander, WY 2.3%
6.Trenton, NJ 2.3%
7.Morgantown, WV 2.0%
8.Logan, UT 2.0%
9.Bozeman, MT 1.8%
10.Albany, GA 1.8%
11. Fairmont, WV 1.6%
12.Minot, ND 1.6%
13. Great Falls, MT 1.4%
14.Livingston, MT 1.3%
15. Bismarck, ND 1.3%
16.Missoula, MT 1.2%
17. Grand Forks, ND 1.2%
18. Paducah, KY−1.2%
19.Piedmont, SD −1.5%
20. Lawton, OK −2.1%
21. Black Hills, SD −2.1%
22.Edmond, OK −2.8%
23. Oklahoma City, OK −2.9%
24.Lincoln, NE−3.0%
25. Amarillo, TX −3.9%

I am happy to see 17 areas that have a positive forecast for 2009.

It is important to remeber that when talking about area markets there are different markets within one area, so not all of San Diego will have such a negative year just like not all of it had a terrible 2008. Also, this will be the best year for people who are considering the purchase of a new property. This is the time to start looking for a property and to get qualified for a loan. Lending rates are at historicaly low levels, and opportunities are out there. It is never a good idea to try to time the bottom of the market and from my expirience, the media and analyst are usually months behind the reality of the market, by the time we start hearing some positive news in the media, the bottom has passed and we find ourselves in the middle of an escalating market. Unless you are buying with the idea to flip a house on a short term, if the market slides down a little further after you purchased your home, it should not affect you since you will not be selling it during this time.

I have to underline the importance of understanding that this are only forecasts and nothing else, but it will be interesting to see where next year takes us, with a new president and so many variables coming into play, it will truly be a year that will keep us on our toes!